A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
